AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, February 26

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins
2:5
Final
Rochester Americans

The sheet

WBSROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
29%71%
xG
2.33.2
High danger
36
Chances
712
Shots
3036

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ROC above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal36
7Scoring chances12
3High-danger chances6
2.27Expected goals3.16

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–174–62–20.9–1.5
2nd10–91–20–20.6–0.7
3rd10–102–41–20.8–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

WBS−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
WBS31:23 of the 3rd18:379:31+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Tristan Jarry
Shots faced
36
Saves
31
Allowed
5
xGA
3.16
GSAx
-1.84
Devon Levi
Shots faced
30
Saves
28
Allowed
2
xGA
2.27
GSAx
+0.27

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:14Ryan Johnson (0–1)low · 61 ft · beat Tristan Jarry
  • 1st 8:30Penalty
  • 1st 9:24Mason Jobst (0–2)5v4 · high · 22 ft · beat Tristan Jarry
  • 1st 14:12Nicolas Aubé-Kubel (0–3)low · 42 ft · beat Tristan Jarry
  • 1st 16:40Penalty
  • 2nd 12:54Penalty
  • 2nd 12:54Penalty
  • 2nd 14:16Rutger McGroarty (1–3)medium · 18 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 3rd 1:23Noah Östlund (1–4)low · 32 ft · beat Tristan Jarry
  • 3rd 3:03Boris Katchouk (2–4)low · 46 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 3rd 4:23Penalty
  • 3rd 10:29Penalty
  • 3rd 16:20Penalty
  • 3rd 18:54Isak Rosén (2–5)empty net · medium · 20 ft · beat Tristan Jarry