Grand Rapids Griffins at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Grand Rapids Griffins

2:5

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

GRTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

60%40%

xG: 3.12.5
High danger: 65
Chances: 108
Shots: 2926

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal26

10Scoring chances8

6High-danger chances5

3.13Expected goals2.54

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–8	2–1	2–1	1.1–0.6
2nd	7–8	4–3	2–0	0.8–0.7
3rd	11–10	4–4	2–4	1.2–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	2	15:33 of the 3rd	4:27	4:27	+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.13
GSAx: +1.13

Jack Campbell

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 21
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.53
GSAx: -2.47

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:50Amadeus Lombardi (1–0)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
1st 13:29Matěj Blümel (1–1)low · 24 ft · beat Jack Campbell
1st 17:27Penalty
1st 18:07Carter Mazur (2–1)4v5 · high · 10 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
2nd 6:38Kyle Looft (2–2)medium · 6 ft · beat Jack Campbell
3rd 5:25Penalty
3rd 5:49Arttu Hyry (2–3)4v5 · grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Jack Campbell
3rd 15:33Arttu Hyry (2–4)low · 36 ft · beat Jack Campbell
3rd 18:37Curtis McKenzie (2–5)empty net · low · 51 ft · beat Jack Campbell