AHLDashboard
Wednesday, February 26

Calgary Wranglers at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Calgary Wranglers
0:4
Final
San Diego Gulls

The sheet

CGYSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
35%65%
xG
2.42.6
High danger
24
Chances
710
Shots
3428

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SD above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal28
7Scoring chances10
2High-danger chances4
2.42Expected goals2.62

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st17641001.20.4
2nd81305020.41.4
3rd9934220.80.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY38:30 of the 3rd11:3011:30+0.016 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Shots faced
34
Saves
34
Allowed
0
xGA
2.42
GSAx
+2.42
Shots faced
28
Saves
24
Allowed
4
xGA
2.62
GSAx
-1.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 8:20Penalty
  • 1st 19:03Penalty
  • 2nd 0:05Justin Bailey (0–1)5v4 · medium · 32 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 2nd 2:07Sasha Pastujov (0–2)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 2nd 13:11Penalty
  • 2nd 18:55Penalty
  • 3rd 8:30Easton Brodzinski (0–3)low · 58 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 3rd 14:31Nathan Gaucher (0–4)empty net · low · 27 ft · beat Devin Cooley