AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, February 26

Bakersfield Condors at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Bakersfield Condors
3:2
Final
San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

BAKSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
85%15%
xG
4.31.9
High danger
113
Chances
178
Shots
4018

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SJ above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal18
17Scoring chances8
11High-danger chances3
4.31Expected goals1.94

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–75–43–11.2–0.7
2nd14–45–15–01.6–0.3
3rd15–77–33–21.5–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SJ−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SJ116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Gabriel Carriere
Shots faced
40
Saves
37
Allowed
3
xGA
4.31
GSAx
+1.31
Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
18
Saves
16
Allowed
2
xGA
1.93
GSAx
-0.07

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 15:27Thomas Bordeleau (0–1)high · 9 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 16:03Penalty
  • 1st 16:03Penalty
  • 1st 16:03Penalty
  • 1st 19:42Alex Swetlikoff (1–1)high · 9 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 1:51Penalty
  • 2nd 9:22Penalty
  • 2nd 12:13Penalty
  • 2nd 12:13Penalty
  • 2nd 12:13Penalty
  • 2nd 12:40Penalty
  • 2nd 13:45Connor Carrick (2–1)5v4 · high · 36 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 2nd 13:49Penalty
  • 2nd 14:20Penalty
  • 2nd 18:42Penalty
  • 2nd 19:29Penalty
  • 2nd 19:29Penalty
  • 3rd 0:34Danil Gushchin (2–2)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 4:45Penalty
  • 3rd 13:12Penalty
  • 3rd 16:45Cameron Wright (3–2)grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere