Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

2:0

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

WBSSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

64%36%

xG: 3.93.1
High danger: 54
Chances: 146
Shots: 3731

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal31

14Scoring chances6

5High-danger chances4

3.85Expected goals3.08

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–7	3–0	1–0	0.9–0.5
2nd	16–10	7–3	2–2	2.0–1.3
3rd	9–14	4–3	2–2	0.9–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	2	15:51 of the 3rd	4:09	4:09	+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 35
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.85
GSAx: +1.85

Filip Larsson

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 31
Allowed: 0
xGA: 3.08
GSAx: +3.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:00Valtteri Puustinen (1–0)low · 28 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
1st 2:46Penalty
1st 2:53Penalty
2nd 8:38Penalty
2nd 11:41Penalty
2nd 11:41Penalty
2nd 11:51Penalty
2nd 11:51Penalty
2nd 16:54Penalty
3rd 5:36Penalty
3rd 5:36Penalty
3rd 9:29Penalty
3rd 15:51Atley Calvert (2–0)medium · 17 ft · beat Brandon Halverson