Rochester Americans at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Rochester Americans

2:3

Final / SO

Utica Comets

The sheet

ROCUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

86%14%

xG: 3.71.5
High danger: 61
Chances: 117
Shots: 3318

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal18

11Scoring chances7

6High-danger chances1

3.71Expected goals1.54

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–10	1–6	0–1	0.3–1.0
2nd	17–4	4–0	2–0	1.4–0.1
3rd	10–2	5–0	3–0	1.4–0.2
OT	3–2	1–1	1–0	0.6–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	1:39	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Isaac Poulter

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.71
GSAx: +1.71

Michael Houser

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 16
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.54
GSAx: -0.46

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 12:50Penalty
1st 17:37Penalty
2nd 1:48Penalty
2nd 3:30Penalty
2nd 9:19Dmitry Osipov (0–1)low · 65 ft · beat Michael Houser
3rd 2:13Penalty
3rd 2:57Nolan Foote (0–2)5v4 · low · 51 ft · beat Michael Houser
3rd 3:43Penalty
3rd 8:43Konsta Helenius (1–2)medium · 15 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
3rd 9:03Penalty
3rd 12:39Penalty
3rd 18:35Noah Östlund (2–2)high · 32 ft · beat Isaac Poulter