Manitoba Moose at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Manitoba Moose

3:5

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

MBBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

26%74%

xG: 2.43.9
High danger: 38
Chances: 1318
Shots: 2030

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal30

13Scoring chances18

3High-danger chances8

2.43Expected goals3.85

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–9	2–5	0–2	0.5–1.3
2nd	8–9	6–5	3–3	1.2–1.0
3rd	7–12	5–8	0–3	0.8–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	2	14:43 of the 3rd	5:17	3:45	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kaapo Kähkönen

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 25
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.85
GSAx: -1.15

Malcolm Subban

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 17
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.43
GSAx: -0.57

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:42Penalty
1st 10:16Penalty
1st 17:11Penalty
1st 17:50Axel Jonsson-Fjällby (1–0)5v4 · medium · 33 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
2nd 2:48Penalty
2nd 2:48Penalty
2nd 7:21Penalty
2nd 12:18Philippe Daoust (1–1)high · 17 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
2nd 19:55Penalty
3rd 2:05Keean Washkurak (1–2)medium · 21 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
3rd 4:34Penalty
3rd 6:53Ryan Chyzowski (2–2)medium · 20 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
3rd 9:19Djibril Touré (2–3)low · 33 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
3rd 14:43Jamieson Rees (2–4)high · 11 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
3rd 15:24Dominic Toninato (3–4)medium · 20 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
3rd 19:05Penalty
3rd 19:05Penalty
3rd 19:05Penalty
3rd 19:05Penalty
3rd 19:05Penalty
3rd 19:05Penalty
3rd 19:05Penalty
3rd 19:05Penalty
3rd 19:05Penalty
3rd 19:41Cole Reinhardt (3–5)empty net · low · 30 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen