Rockford IceHogs at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Rockford IceHogs

1:5

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

RFDTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

7%93%

xG: 1.32.7
High danger: 04
Chances: 19
Shots: 2027

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal27

1Scoring chances9

0High-danger chances4

1.26Expected goals2.68

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–15	0–5	0–3	0.3–1.6
2nd	4–10	0–2	0–0	0.2–0.7
3rd	10–2	1–2	0–1	0.7–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	5	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mitchell Weeks

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 20
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.37
GSAx: -2.63

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 19
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.26
GSAx: +0.26

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 2
Saves: 2
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.31
GSAx: +0.31

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:33Penalty
1st 8:17Kailer Yamamoto (0–1)5v4 · high · 15 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 10:18Egor Sokolov (0–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 13:07Penalty
1st 17:16Artem Duda (0–3)low · 55 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 17:29Penalty
1st 17:29Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 8:46Penalty
2nd 14:08Egor Sokolov (0–4)medium · 31 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
2nd 14:40Penalty
2nd 14:40Penalty
2nd 14:40Penalty
2nd 19:08Cameron Hebig (0–5)medium · 9 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
3rd 3:06Gerry Mayhew (1–5)low · 32 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 9:49Penalty