Abbotsford Canucks at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Abbotsford Canucks

2:3

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

ABBCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

45%55%

xG: 3.43.4
High danger: 59
Chances: 1314
Shots: 3822

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal22

13Scoring chances14

5High-danger chances9

3.42Expected goals3.37

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–5	4–4	2–2	1.1–0.7
2nd	11–7	5–2	1–1	1.1–0.7
3rd	14–10	4–8	2–6	1.2–2.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Waltteri Ignatjew

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 36
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.42
GSAx: +1.42

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 19
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.37
GSAx: +0.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:44Penalty
1st 5:45Jonathan Lekkerimäki (1–0)high · tip · 8 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
1st 9:07Penalty
2nd 2:37Penalty
2nd 3:34Penalty
2nd 6:09Penalty
2nd 7:52Penalty
2nd 8:10Rory Kerins (1–1)5v4 · high · wrist · 14 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 16:44Penalty
2nd 18:50Parker Bell (1–2)low · wrist · 29 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 1:00Penalty
3rd 3:26Penalty
3rd 5:37Brett Davis (1–3)grade A · wrist · rebound · 15 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 6:08Penalty
3rd 7:35Danila Klimovich (2–3)5v4 · high · wrist · rebound · 59 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew