Ontario Reign at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Ontario Reign

0:4

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

ONTCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

33%67%

xG: 2.73.4
High danger: 68
Chances: 913
Shots: 2926

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal26

9Scoring chances13

6High-danger chances8

2.65Expected goals3.44

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–7	2–3	2–1	0.9–0.7
2nd	13–6	3–3	2–2	1.0–0.8
3rd	6–13	4–7	2–5	0.8–1.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 29
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.65
GSAx: +2.65

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 22
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.44
GSAx: -0.56

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:12Penalty
2nd 4:42Jere Innala (0–1)low · 26 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 6:04Penalty
2nd 6:51Jake Wise (0–2)4v5 · medium · 24 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 8:17Penalty
2nd 10:48Penalty
2nd 10:48Penalty
2nd 14:11Penalty
2nd 14:11Penalty
2nd 17:17Penalty
2nd 19:29Penalty
3rd 1:53Penalty
3rd 1:53Penalty
3rd 5:18Penalty
3rd 13:56Penalty
3rd 14:38Chris Wagner (0–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 15:50Jake Wise (0–4)empty net · high · 9 ft · beat Pheonix Copley