Chicago Wolves at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Chicago Wolves

3:4

Final / OT

Texas Stars

The sheet

CHITEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

43%57%

xG: 4.14.1
High danger: 710
Chances: 1520
Shots: 2930

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal30

15Scoring chances20

7High-danger chances10

4.13Expected goals4.07

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–7	3–3	1–1	0.9–0.7
2nd	11–11	7–9	3–7	1.5–2.0
3rd	11–9	4–6	2–2	1.4–1.1
OT	1–3	1–2	1–0	0.4–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:31	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dustin Tokarski

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.07
GSAx: +0.07

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.13
GSAx: +1.13

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 19:52Justin Hryckowian (0–1)high · backhand · 6 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
2nd 4:28Penalty
2nd 5:16Scott Morrow (1–1)5v4 · low · snap · 27 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
2nd 19:46Cameron Hughes (1–2)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
3rd 9:51Curtis McKenzie (1–3)medium · snap · 8 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
3rd 18:06Justin Robidas (2–3)high · snap · 8 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 19:40Juha Jääskä (3–3)medium · snap · 49 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
OT 2:04Arttu Hyry (3–4)medium · backhand · 9 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski