Abbotsford Canucks at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Abbotsford Canucks

8:4

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

ABBCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

58%42%

xG: 3.72.9
High danger: 86
Chances: 1210
Shots: 3429

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal29

12Scoring chances10

8High-danger chances6

3.67Expected goals2.90

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–10	3–4	1–2	1.1–1.2
2nd	14–6	7–2	6–0	1.9–0.4
3rd	8–13	2–4	1–4	0.7–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	14:39	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ty Young

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.90
GSAx: -1.10

Devin Cooley

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 14
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.83
GSAx: -2.17

Waltteri Ignatjew

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 12
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.84
GSAx: -2.16

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:18Penalty
1st 6:27Cole McWard (1–0)low · wrist · 55 ft · beat Devin Cooley
1st 6:53Penalty
1st 9:03Parker Bell (1–1)grade A · tip · rebound · 20 ft · beat Ty Young
1st 10:20Akito Hirose (2–1)low · wrist · 17 ft · beat Devin Cooley
1st 13:21Penalty
1st 13:56Aatu Räty (3–1)5v4 · low · tip · 45 ft · beat Devin Cooley
2nd 1:29Rory Kerins (3–2)medium · wrist · 19 ft · beat Ty Young
2nd 6:30Chase Wouters (4–2)high · wrist · 13 ft · beat Devin Cooley
2nd 6:49Penalty
2nd 6:49Penalty
2nd 7:22Penalty
2nd 7:22Penalty
2nd 7:22Samuel Blais (5–2)5v4 · high · wrist · 25 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
2nd 8:45Chase Wouters (6–2)5v4 · low · wrist · 47 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
2nd 10:48Penalty
2nd 10:48Penalty
3rd 3:56Rory Kerins (6–3)low · 14 ft · beat Ty Young
3rd 4:35Dryden Hunt (6–4)low · 34 ft · beat Ty Young
3rd 9:56Danila Klimovich (7–4)low · wrist · 34 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
3rd 16:04Danila Klimovich (8–4)empty net · low · wrist · 114 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
3rd 16:29Penalty
3rd 18:15Penalty
3rd 18:15Penalty
3rd 19:31Penalty
3rd 19:31Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty