Henderson Silver Knights at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Henderson Silver Knights

1:4

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

HSKSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

25%75%

xG: 2.65.1
High danger: 512
Chances: 1221
Shots: 2744

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal44

12Scoring chances21

5High-danger chances12

2.61Expected goals5.06

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–18	3–7	2–5	0.7–2.0
2nd	6–15	3–8	2–3	0.7–1.7
3rd	16–11	6–6	1–4	1.2–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 44
Saves: 40
Allowed: 4
xGA: 5.06
GSAx: +1.06

Gabriel Carriere

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.61
GSAx: +1.61

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:27Penalty
1st 5:27Penalty
1st 10:22Penalty
1st 10:22Penalty
1st 10:22Penalty
1st 15:01Andrew Poturalski (0–1)low · 16 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
2nd 2:28Penalty
2nd 6:23Penalty
2nd 6:23Penalty
2nd 6:23Penalty
2nd 6:59Penalty
2nd 18:03Rem Pitlick (0–2)high · 8 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
2nd 18:32Pavol Regenda (0–3)medium · 15 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
2nd 19:43Penalty
3rd 2:20Thomas Bordeleau (0–4)medium · 16 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 3:41Penalty
3rd 8:14Kai Uchacz (1–4)low · 17 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
3rd 11:10Penalty
3rd 13:40Penalty