Hartford Wolf Pack at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Hartford Wolf Pack

2:5

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

HFDPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

14%86%

xG: 1.94.3
High danger: 312
Chances: 716
Shots: 2041

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal41

7Scoring chances16

3High-danger chances12

1.87Expected goals4.31

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–14	5–6	2–5	1.1–1.6
2nd	5–15	0–6	0–3	0.2–1.5
3rd	5–12	2–4	1–4	0.6–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Louis Domingue

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 36
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.18
GSAx: +1.18

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 18
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.87
GSAx: -0.13

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:45Penalty
1st 2:45Penalty
1st 3:14Penalty
1st 4:03Max Jones (0–1)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Louis Domingue
1st 4:54Jake Leschyshyn (1–1)high · 11 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
1st 13:39Nathan Sucese (2–1)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
2nd 19:22Penalty
2nd 19:22Penalty
2nd 19:22Penalty
2nd 19:22Penalty
3rd 11:26Vinni Lettieri (2–2)high · 19 ft · beat Louis Domingue
3rd 13:27Fabian Lysell (2–3)low · 23 ft · beat Louis Domingue
3rd 18:37Riley Tufte (2–4)empty net · low · 34 ft
3rd 19:56Oliver Wahlstrom (2–5)empty net · low · 42 ft