AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 2

Chicago Wolves at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Chicago Wolves
0:4
Final
Texas Stars

The sheet

CHITEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
13%87%
xG
2.45.0
High danger
210
Chances
621
Shots
2938

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TEX above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal38
6Scoring chances21
2High-danger chances10
2.36Expected goals4.99

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–93–62–50.8–1.7
2nd12–133–70–20.9–1.4
3rd9–160–80–30.7–1.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CHI−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CHI31:41 of the 3rd18:1918:19+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dustin Tokarski
Shots faced
38
Saves
34
Allowed
4
xGA
4.99
GSAx
+0.99
Rémi Poirier
Shots faced
29
Saves
29
Allowed
0
xGA
2.36
GSAx
+2.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 9:22Curtis McKenzie (0–1)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 1st 11:53Penalty
  • 2nd 0:26Penalty
  • 2nd 0:50Penalty
  • 2nd 10:39Cameron Hughes (0–2)medium · 10 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 3rd 1:32Penalty
  • 3rd 1:41Justin Hryckowian (0–3)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 3rd 8:14Antonio Stranges (0–4)low · 16 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski