Belleville Senators at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Belleville Senators

4:1

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

BELWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

45%55%

xG: 2.53.3
High danger: 65
Chances: 1114
Shots: 2836

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal36

11Scoring chances14

6High-danger chances5

2.49Expected goals3.33

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–10	5–6	3–2	1.0–1.0
2nd	14–11	6–4	3–2	1.3–0.8
3rd	6–15	0–4	0–1	0.1–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 35
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.33
GSAx: +2.33

Filip Larsson

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.49
GSAx: -0.51

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:18Atley Calvert (0–1)medium · tip · 18 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
1st 12:51Hayden Hodgson (1–1)low · tip · 14 ft · beat Filip Larsson
1st 14:56Penalty
1st 15:44Zack Ostapchuk (2–1)4v5 · high · wrist · 18 ft · beat Filip Larsson
2nd 9:39Xavier Bourgault (3–1)high · tip · rebound · 10 ft · beat Filip Larsson
3rd 14:19Penalty
3rd 19:28Maxence Guenette (4–1)empty net · low · wrist · 143 ft