Texas Stars at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Texas Stars

4:3

Final / SO

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

TEXMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

27%73%

xG: 2.73.7
High danger: 27
Chances: 815
Shots: 3631

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal31

8Scoring chances15

2High-danger chances7

2.74Expected goals3.67

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–6	2–1	1–0	0.9–0.4
2nd	14–9	4–6	1–3	1.1–1.2
3rd	5–13	2–6	0–4	0.5–1.8
OT	4–3	0–2	0–0	0.3–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	1:44	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 33
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.74
GSAx: -0.26

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.67
GSAx: +0.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:41Chase Wheatcroft (1–0)low · 14 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 2:38Ondrej Pavel (1–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 9:01Penalty
2nd 15:17Penalty
2nd 15:29Matěj Blümel (2–1)4v5 · high · 21 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 17:50Justin Hryckowian (3–1)medium · 29 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 7:02Penalty
3rd 11:11Ryder Rolston (3–2)medium · rebound · 19 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 18:40Cal O’Reilly (3–3)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Rémi Poirier