Bridgeport Islanders at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Bridgeport Islanders

3:6

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

BRIHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

59%41%

xG: 4.63.2
High danger: 55
Chances: 1713
Shots: 4131

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

41Shots on goal31

17Scoring chances13

5High-danger chances5

4.63Expected goals3.25

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–8	6–3	2–1	1.5–0.8
2nd	9–13	3–6	0–3	0.8–1.6
3rd	19–10	8–4	3–1	2.4–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	3	1:15 of the 3rd	18:45	16:55	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 41
Saves: 38
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.63
GSAx: +1.63

Tristan Lennox

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 18
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.32
GSAx: -0.68

Hunter Miska

Shots faced: 10
Saves: 7
Allowed: 3
xGA: 0.92
GSAx: -2.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:07Penalty
1st 6:36Chad Ruhwedel (0–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Tristan Lennox
1st 13:44Penalty
1st 17:00Penalty
1st 17:41Penalty
2nd 8:32Penalty
2nd 9:16Alex Belzile (0–2)5v4 · medium · 40 ft · beat Tristan Lennox
2nd 12:20Penalty
2nd 13:10Cam Thiesing (1–2)4v5 · medium · 17 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 16:57Dylan Roobroeck (1–3)high · 5 ft · beat Tristan Lennox
3rd 1:15Jaroslav Chmelar (1–4)medium · 16 ft · beat Hunter Miska
3rd 10:03William Dufour (2–4)medium · 17 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 11:53Blake McLaughlin (2–5)medium · 26 ft · beat Hunter Miska
3rd 14:45Penalty
3rd 15:55Alex Jefferies (3–5)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 4 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 17:44Bryce McConnell-Barker (3–6)empty net · low · 117 ft · beat Hunter Miska