AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, March 5

Belleville Senators at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Belleville Senators
6:2
Final
Hershey Bears

The sheet

BELHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
44%56%
xG
2.32.3
High danger
34
Chances
108
Shots
2325

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HER above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal25
10Scoring chances8
3High-danger chances4
2.29Expected goals2.29

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–73–10–10.5–0.5
2nd8–75–42–31.2–1.0
3rd9–112–31–00.5–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HER−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HER30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Malcolm Subban
Shots faced
25
Saves
23
Allowed
2
xGA
2.29
GSAx
+0.29
Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
14
Saves
10
Allowed
4
xGA
1.75
GSAx
-2.25
Clay Stevenson
Shots faced
9
Saves
7
Allowed
2
xGA
0.54
GSAx
-1.46

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:18Penalty
  • 1st 10:30Penalty
  • 1st 12:38Jeremy Davies (1–0)medium · 18 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 1st 15:45Penalty
  • 1st 15:45Penalty
  • 1st 17:58Penalty
  • 2nd 3:10Penalty
  • 2nd 3:10Penalty
  • 2nd 3:18Penalty
  • 2nd 3:18Penalty
  • 2nd 3:18Penalty
  • 2nd 3:26Garrett Pilon (2–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 2nd 3:59Cole Reinhardt (3–0)high · 25 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 2nd 12:23Penalty
  • 2nd 13:21Pierrick Dubé (3–1)5v4 · high · rebound · 16 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 2nd 19:28Jorian Donovan (4–1)low · 26 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 8:10Jan Jeník (5–1)high · 19 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 3rd 14:42Mike Vecchione (5–2)low · 31 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 3rd 18:33Maxence Guenette (6–2)empty net · low · 148 ft · beat Clay Stevenson