Springfield Thunderbirds at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Springfield Thunderbirds

2:5

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

SPRCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

16%84%

xG: 1.53.2
High danger: 15
Chances: 411
Shots: 1737

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

17Shots on goal37

4Scoring chances11

1High-danger chances5

1.48Expected goals3.20

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–14	3–3	0–2	0.8–1.2
2nd	2–11	0–4	0–2	0.0–1.0
3rd	7–12	1–4	1–1	0.7–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.34
GSAx: +0.34

Ken Appleby

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 15
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.48
GSAx: -0.52

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 11
Saves: 8
Allowed: 3
xGA: 0.86
GSAx: -2.14

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:37Justin Sourdif (0–1)low · 28 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 8:40Trevor Carrick (0–2)low · 38 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 10:52Penalty
1st 10:58Trevor Carrick (0–3)5v4 · low · 46 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 11:43Penalty
1st 11:43Penalty
1st 12:21Matt Luff (1–3)medium · 17 ft · beat Ken Appleby
1st 13:10Penalty
1st 13:52Penalty
1st 13:52Penalty
1st 15:03Penalty
1st 15:03Penalty
1st 16:58Mackenzie MacEachern (2–3)low · 18 ft · beat Ken Appleby
1st 17:29Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 1:46Penalty
2nd 7:37Penalty
2nd 15:27Penalty
3rd 5:16Penalty
3rd 7:18Justin Sourdif (2–4)medium · 15 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 19:15Penalty
3rd 19:32Rasmus Asplund (2–5)empty net · high · 12 ft · beat Colten Ellis