AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, March 5

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Coachella Valley Firebirds
8:2
Final
Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

CVCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
87%13%
xG
5.22.4
High danger
133
Chances
205
Shots
4225

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

024P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CGY above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

42Shots on goal25
20Scoring chances5
13High-danger chances3
5.22Expected goals2.35

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–73–31–21.0–1.1
2nd14–812–09–02.6–0.5
3rd19–105–23–11.6–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−70:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY70:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.001 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devin Cooley
Shots faced
27
Saves
23
Allowed
4
xGA
3.20
GSAx
-0.80
Victor Östman
Shots faced
25
Saves
23
Allowed
2
xGA
2.35
GSAx
+0.35
Waltteri Ignatjew
Shots faced
15
Saves
11
Allowed
4
xGA
2.02
GSAx
-1.98

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:34Sam Morton (0–1)grade A · wrist · rebound · 13 ft · beat Victor Östman
  • 1st 12:26Penalty
  • 1st 17:06Ian McKinnon (1–1)grade A · tip · rebound · 3 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 2nd 0:48Mitchell Stephens (2–1)high · wrist · rebound · 25 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 2nd 4:28John Hayden (3–1)high · wrist · 9 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 2nd 8:08Ty Nelson (4–1)low · wrist · 68 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 2nd 10:30Ian McKinnon (5–1)high · backhand · 9 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 2nd 11:09Daniel Sprong (6–1)grade A · wrist · rebound · 4 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 2nd 11:13Penalty
  • 2nd 11:13Penalty
  • 2nd 11:41Penalty
  • 2nd 11:55Daniel Sprong (7–1)5v4 · high · slap · 36 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 2nd 14:44Penalty
  • 2nd 18:10Daniel Sprong (8–1)high · wrist · 15 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 3rd 0:44Penalty
  • 3rd 10:54Penalty
  • 3rd 12:27Penalty
  • 3rd 12:27Penalty
  • 3rd 12:27Penalty
  • 3rd 12:27Penalty
  • 3rd 17:15Yan Kuznetsov (8–2)low · wrist · 36 ft · beat Victor Östman
  • 3rd 18:34Penalty