Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

7:1

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

WBSHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

55%45%

xG: 2.62.1
High danger: 45
Chances: 118
Shots: 2825

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal25

11Scoring chances8

4High-danger chances5

2.65Expected goals2.06

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–10	2–3	1–2	0.6–0.6
2nd	9–7	3–4	0–2	0.6–0.8
3rd	12–8	6–1	3–1	1.5–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	3	4:44 of the 3rd	15:16	15:16	+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Filip Larsson

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.06
GSAx: +1.06

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 11
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.59
GSAx: -2.41

Louis Domingue

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 10
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.06
GSAx: -1.94

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 16:09Nathan Sucese (0–1)medium · 33 ft · beat Filip Larsson
2nd 1:29Penalty
2nd 6:54Mathias Laferrière (1–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 7:25Avery Hayes (2–1)low · 25 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 8:19Penalty
2nd 12:38Valtteri Puustinen (3–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 17:12Penalty
3rd 0:15Penalty
3rd 4:44Vasily Ponomarev (4–1)high · 11 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 5:21Ville Koivunen (5–1)high · 9 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 9:07Atley Calvert (6–1)low · 6 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 9:30Penalty
3rd 11:57Rutger McGroarty (7–1)high · 12 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 16:11Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty