Syracuse Crunch at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Syracuse Crunch

1:4

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

SYRUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

17%83%

xG: 1.43.3
High danger: 14
Chances: 613
Shots: 1830

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

18Shots on goal30

6Scoring chances13

1High-danger chances4

1.43Expected goals3.27

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–13	0–6	0–3	0.1–1.8
2nd	4–10	1–4	0–0	0.3–0.7
3rd	11–7	5–3	1–1	1.0–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.27
GSAx: -0.73

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 17
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.43
GSAx: +0.43

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:23Penalty
1st 2:07Joe Gambardella (0–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
1st 2:12Penalty
1st 17:39Penalty
1st 19:37Nathan Légaré (0–2)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
2nd 6:24Penalty
2nd 8:17Conor Geekie (1–2)5v4 · low · 52 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 19:36Penalty
3rd 4:04Penalty
3rd 8:27Nathan Légaré (1–3)medium · 22 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 9:31Penalty
3rd 18:22Penalty
3rd 18:22Joe Gambardella (1–4)empty net · medium · 17 ft · beat Matt Tomkins