Toronto Marlies at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Toronto Marlies

2:5

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

TORPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

9%91%

xG: 2.15.3
High danger: 210
Chances: 524
Shots: 2735

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal35

5Scoring chances24

2High-danger chances10

2.08Expected goals5.28

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–12	2–7	1–2	0.8–1.4
2nd	6–17	1–12	0–8	0.5–3.2
3rd	11–6	2–5	1–0	0.9–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.08
GSAx: +0.08

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 21
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.12
GSAx: +0.12

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 11
Saves: 9
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.16
GSAx: +0.16

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:12Penalty
1st 11:42Penalty
1st 18:51Penalty
2nd 0:42Oliver Wahlstrom (0–1)5v4 · low · 30 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 4:52Penalty
2nd 7:31Penalty
2nd 8:35Oliver Wahlstrom (0–2)5v4 · medium · 29 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 9:52Tyler Pitlick (0–3)high · 16 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 10:23Riley Duran (0–4)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 12:46Penalty
2nd 13:52Penalty
2nd 14:48Penalty
2nd 19:48Jacob Quillan (1–4)low · 27 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 0:25Oliver Wahlstrom (1–5)medium · 20 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 4:30Penalty
3rd 7:22Penalty
3rd 9:37Penalty
3rd 13:54Roni Hirvonen (2–5)high · rebound · 19 ft · beat Michael DiPietro