AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 7

Iowa Wild at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Iowa Wild
0:4
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

IARFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
15%85%
xG
1.73.6
High danger
16
Chances
610
Shots
2336

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal36
6Scoring chances10
1High-danger chances6
1.72Expected goals3.57

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–92–20–10.6–0.5
2nd7–133–50–40.6–1.7
3rd8–141–31–10.5–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jesper Wallstedt
Shots faced
36
Saves
32
Allowed
4
xGA
3.57
GSAx
-0.43
Drew Commesso
Shots faced
23
Saves
23
Allowed
0
xGA
1.72
GSAx
+1.72

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 11:25Penalty
  • 1st 19:26Brett Seney (0–1)low · 31 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 2nd 1:30Penalty
  • 2nd 1:55Penalty
  • 2nd 3:03Zach Sanford (0–2)5v4 · medium · 44 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 2nd 11:12Nolan Allan (0–3)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 2nd 14:18Penalty
  • 2nd 16:01Zach Sanford (0–4)5v4 · low · 26 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 2nd 17:12Penalty
  • 3rd 0:23Penalty
  • 3rd 14:08Penalty
  • 3rd 14:08Penalty
  • 3rd 14:08Penalty
  • 3rd 19:26Penalty
  • 3rd 19:26Penalty