AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 7

Tucson Roadrunners at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Tucson Roadrunners
5:4
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

TUCBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
57%43%
xG
2.92.5
High danger
75
Chances
108
Shots
2821

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal21
10Scoring chances8
7High-danger chances5
2.88Expected goals2.53

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–104–53–41.2–1.4
2nd12–35–13–01.4–0.2
3rd3–81–21–10.3–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
28
Saves
23
Allowed
5
xGA
2.89
GSAx
-2.11
Jaxson Stauber
Shots faced
21
Saves
17
Allowed
4
xGA
2.53
GSAx
-1.47

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:26Penalty
  • 1st 3:03Kailer Yamamoto (1–0)5v4 · high · wrist · 12 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 5:00Penalty
  • 1st 8:44Penalty
  • 1st 10:48Matthew Savoie (1–1)low · wrist · 30 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 1st 13:06Penalty
  • 1st 14:44Drake Caggiula (1–2)5v4 · grade A · wrist · rebound · 31 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 1st 14:51Penalty
  • 1st 14:51Penalty
  • 1st 17:10Kailer Yamamoto (2–2)medium · wrist · 24 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 18:26Penalty
  • 2nd 2:52Ronnie Attard (2–3)medium · wrist · 24 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 3:22Penalty
  • 2nd 4:29Ben McCartney (3–3)5v4 · high · wrist · 14 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 6:29Cameron Hebig (4–3)low · wrist · 32 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 8:52Penalty
  • 2nd 13:08Penalty
  • 2nd 14:18Penalty
  • 2nd 16:01Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 5:48Penalty
  • 3rd 7:44Penalty
  • 3rd 18:49Ben McCartney (5–3)empty net · high · wrist · 7 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 19:59Matthew Savoie (5–4)grade A · wrist · rebound · 10 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber