AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 8

Hershey Bears at Cleveland Monsters

Rocket Arena · Cleveland, OH

Hershey Bears
4:3
Final
Cleveland Monsters

The sheet

HERCLESolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
70%30%
xG
3.42.3
High danger
86
Chances
138
Shots
3124

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CLE above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% CLE.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal24
13Scoring chances8
8High-danger chances6
3.44Expected goals2.31

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–75–23–11.2–0.7
2nd9–51–20–20.7–0.6
3rd11–127–45–31.5–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CLE−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CLE116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Zach Sawchenko
Shots faced
31
Saves
27
Allowed
4
xGA
3.44
GSAx
-0.56
Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
24
Saves
21
Allowed
3
xGA
2.31
GSAx
-0.69

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 13:23Penalty
  • 1st 13:23Penalty
  • 1st 13:52Penalty
  • 1st 15:23Mike Vecchione (1–0)5v4 · high · rebound · 45 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
  • 2nd 3:54Penalty
  • 2nd 3:54Penalty
  • 2nd 17:29Penalty
  • 3rd 0:17Luca Del Bel Belluz (1–1)high · tip · 7 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 4:28Penalty
  • 3rd 7:58Penalty
  • 3rd 8:52Ivan Miroshnichenko (2–1)5v4 · high · rebound · 46 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
  • 3rd 11:21Joseph LaBate (2–2)high · 6 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 12:21Ethan Bear (3–2)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
  • 3rd 18:58Vincent Iorio (4–2)empty net · low · 151 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
  • 3rd 19:59Luca Del Bel Belluz (4–3)low · 29 ft · beat Hunter Shepard