AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 8

Providence Bruins at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Providence Bruins
1:2
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

PROSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
78%22%
xG
4.41.8
High danger
75
Chances
166
Shots
4020

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal20
16Scoring chances6
7High-danger chances5
4.43Expected goals1.84

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–35–12–11.3–0.3
2nd10–115–33–31.5–1.1
3rd19–66–22–11.6–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

PRO−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
PRO116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis
Shots faced
40
Saves
39
Allowed
1
xGA
4.43
GSAx
+3.43
Brandon Bussi
Shots faced
20
Saves
18
Allowed
2
xGA
1.84
GSAx
-0.16

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 2nd 3:40Joey Abate (1–0)low · 26 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 2nd 7:38Penalty
  • 2nd 7:43Samuel Johannesson (1–1)5v4 · low · 52 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 2nd 19:58Matthew Peca (1–2)high · 5 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 3rd 1:02Penalty
  • 3rd 8:28Penalty
  • 3rd 8:28Penalty
  • 3rd 16:01Penalty
  • 3rd 16:48Penalty