AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 8

Texas Stars at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Texas Stars
2:4
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

TEXRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
79%21%
xG
4.12.0
High danger
74
Chances
179
Shots
3823

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal23
17Scoring chances9
7High-danger chances4
4.07Expected goals1.99

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–77–12–11.5–0.5
2nd13–94–62–31.3–1.2
3rd13–76–23–01.3–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso
Shots faced
38
Saves
36
Allowed
2
xGA
4.07
GSAx
+2.07
Magnus Hellberg
Shots faced
23
Saves
19
Allowed
4
xGA
1.99
GSAx
-2.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:58Cole Guttman (0–1)low · 19 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 1st 4:03Penalty
  • 1st 10:11Emilio Pettersen (1–1)medium · 9 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 1st 12:16Penalty
  • 1st 14:55Paul Ludwinski (1–2)low · 43 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 1st 18:16Penalty
  • 2nd 13:36Emilio Pettersen (2–2)medium · tip · 15 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 14:42Penalty
  • 2nd 15:38Penalty
  • 2nd 17:14Penalty
  • 2nd 18:08Zach Sanford (2–3)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 12:10Penalty
  • 3rd 18:59Penalty
  • 3rd 19:32Joey Anderson (2–4)empty net · low · 52 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty