Ontario Reign at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Ontario Reign

3:5

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

ONTSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

34%66%

xG: 2.63.8
High danger: 44
Chances: 815
Shots: 3037

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal37

8Scoring chances15

4High-danger chances4

2.61Expected goals3.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–8	1–2	0–1	0.6–0.5
2nd	10–19	6–10	4–2	1.3–2.4
3rd	9–10	1–3	0–1	0.7–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dryden McKay

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 32
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.77
GSAx: -1.23

Ville Husso

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.61
GSAx: -0.39

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:19Luke Rowe (1–0)low · 60 ft · beat Ville Husso
1st 16:47Jeff Malott (2–0)low · 38 ft · beat Ville Husso
2nd 10:32Penalty
2nd 15:49Justin Bailey (2–1)grade A · 44 ft · beat Dryden McKay
2nd 16:36Judd Caulfield (2–2)medium · 12 ft · beat Dryden McKay
2nd 19:21Penalty
2nd 19:21Penalty
2nd 19:33Nikita Nesterenko (2–3)low · 27 ft · beat Dryden McKay
3rd 1:22Penalty
3rd 7:53Jack Studnicka (3–3)low · 28 ft · beat Ville Husso
3rd 15:03Jan Myšák (3–4)medium · 10 ft · beat Dryden McKay
3rd 18:10Nathan Gaucher (3–5)empty net · medium · 10 ft · beat Dryden McKay