Tucson Roadrunners at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Tucson Roadrunners

2:3

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

TUCBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

24%76%

xG: 2.74.4
High danger: 36
Chances: 818
Shots: 3145

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal45

8Scoring chances18

3High-danger chances6

2.66Expected goals4.44

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–13	4–4	2–1	1.1–1.1
2nd	10–18	3–8	1–2	1.0–2.0
3rd	9–14	1–6	0–3	0.6–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 45
Saves: 42
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.44
GSAx: +1.44

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.66
GSAx: +0.66

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:08Penalty
1st 6:08Penalty
1st 14:10Penalty
1st 15:40Penalty
1st 18:41Penalty
2nd 4:22Penalty
2nd 4:27Connor Corcoran (0–1)5v4 · high · slap · 32 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 11:53Derek Ryan (0–2)medium · wrist · 25 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 13:37Penalty
2nd 14:06Penalty
2nd 16:01Matthew Savoie (0–3)5v4 · grade A · wrist · 25 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 17:29Penalty
2nd 18:00Sammy Walker (1–3)5v4 · high · wrist · rebound · 12 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 10:30Andrew Agozzino (2–3)low · wrist · 34 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 11:26Penalty
3rd 17:26Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty