Calgary Wranglers at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Calgary Wranglers

3:2

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

CGYMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

41%59%

xG: 3.03.2
High danger: 56
Chances: 912
Shots: 2929

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal29

9Scoring chances12

5High-danger chances6

2.95Expected goals3.18

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–7	2–2	1–0	0.7–0.5
2nd	15–11	4–6	2–3	1.5–1.4
3rd	6–11	3–4	2–3	0.8–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Chris Driedger

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.95
GSAx: -0.05

Devin Cooley

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.18
GSAx: +1.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:24Penalty
1st 8:13Penalty
1st 8:13Penalty
1st 8:13Penalty
1st 11:18Penalty
1st 15:12Fabian Wagner (0–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Devin Cooley
1st 16:23Rory Kerins (1–1)medium · 27 ft · beat Chris Driedger
2nd 7:59Penalty
2nd 11:10Sam Morton (2–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Chris Driedger
3rd 0:25Penalty
3rd 8:19Penalty
3rd 9:32Clark Bishop (3–1)4v5 · grade A · 10 ft · beat Chris Driedger
3rd 11:12Penalty
3rd 11:49Penalty
3rd 11:52Dylan Coghlan (3–2)5v4 · high · 44 ft · beat Devin Cooley