AHLDashboard
Sunday, March 9

Texas Stars at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Texas Stars
0:4
Final
Chicago Wolves

The sheet

TEXCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
46%54%
xG
2.93.0
High danger
57
Chances
1112
Shots
2825

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CHI above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal25
11Scoring chances12
5High-danger chances7
2.91Expected goals2.96

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st18873321.80.8
2nd2804010.10.9
3rd8945240.91.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Shots faced
28
Saves
28
Allowed
0
xGA
2.91
GSAx
+2.91
Shots faced
25
Saves
21
Allowed
4
xGA
2.95
GSAx
-1.05

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 18:26Penalty
  • 2nd 1:40Penalty
  • 2nd 4:55Penalty
  • 2nd 7:55Penalty
  • 2nd 19:37Bradly Nadeau (0–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 0:21Penalty
  • 3rd 1:14Penalty
  • 3rd 4:57Penalty
  • 3rd 6:24Nick Swaney (0–2)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 11:50Penalty
  • 3rd 15:18Justin Robidas (0–3)high · 8 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 18:39Austin Wagner (0–4)empty net · low · 119 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg