Ontario Reign at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Ontario Reign

4:2

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

ONTTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

64%36%

xG: 3.82.7
High danger: 76
Chances: 1610
Shots: 3325

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal25

16Scoring chances10

7High-danger chances6

3.79Expected goals2.66

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–9	4–4	2–3	1.2–1.1
2nd	15–9	8–3	2–0	1.8–0.7
3rd	6–7	4–3	3–3	0.8–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 29
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.79
GSAx: -0.21

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.66
GSAx: +0.66

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:25Curtis Douglas (0–1)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 13:28Glenn Gawdin (1–1)medium · 23 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 17:22Penalty
1st 17:22Penalty
1st 18:16Sam Lipkin (1–2)high · 16 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 18:59Penalty
2nd 5:02Penalty
2nd 9:07Jeff Malott (2–2)medium · 32 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 10:18Luke Rowe (3–2)low · 44 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 10:55Penalty
3rd 2:53Penalty
3rd 5:45Penalty
3rd 7:08Penalty
3rd 15:14Penalty
3rd 17:06Jeff Malott (4–2)5v4 · medium · 15 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 18:38Penalty
3rd 19:19Penalty