AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, March 11

Bakersfield Condors at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Bakersfield Condors
2:6
Final
Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

BAKABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
41%59%
xG
2.52.6
High danger
34
Chances
510
Shots
2929

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ABB above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal29
5Scoring chances10
3High-danger chances4
2.51Expected goals2.58

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–131–31–10.6–0.9
2nd13–82–32–11.4–0.9
3rd8–82–40–20.5–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK31:42 of the 3rd18:1818:18+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
29
Saves
23
Allowed
6
xGA
2.58
GSAx
-3.42
Nikita Tolopilo
Shots faced
29
Saves
27
Allowed
2
xGA
2.51
GSAx
+0.51

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:22Kirill Kudryavtsev (0–1)low · 68 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 7:54Penalty
  • 1st 11:10Drake Caggiula (1–1)low · 60 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 1st 13:54Penalty
  • 1st 19:41Arshdeep Bains (1–2)low · 9 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 5:02Penalty
  • 2nd 6:35Ronnie Attard (2–2)5v4 · grade A · 5 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 2nd 8:13Penalty
  • 2nd 9:16Linus Karlsson (2–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 43 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 12:44Penalty
  • 2nd 15:53Danila Klimovich (2–4)low · 26 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 1:42Tristen Nielsen (2–5)high · 11 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 7:11Jujhar Khaira (2–6)low · 34 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 14:09Penalty
  • 3rd 17:05Penalty