AHLDashboard
Wednesday, March 12

Utica Comets at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Utica Comets
1:2
Final
Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

UTCSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
31%69%
xG
2.63.0
High danger
410
Chances
810
Shots
2923

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SYR above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal23
8Scoring chances10
4High-danger chances10
2.58Expected goals2.95

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st111051311.00.6
2nd5504040.30.9
3rd13835151.21.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

UTC−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
UTC116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Shots faced
29
Saves
28
Allowed
1
xGA
2.58
GSAx
+1.58
Shots faced
23
Saves
21
Allowed
2
xGA
2.95
GSAx
+0.95

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 12:57Penalty
  • 2nd 7:59Penalty
  • 2nd 9:01Jack Finley (0–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 2nd 17:16Penalty
  • 2nd 17:16Penalty
  • 3rd 12:52Max Willman (1–1)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
  • 3rd 15:44Conor Sheary (1–2)grade A · rebound · 29 ft · beat Nico Daws