Providence Bruins at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Providence Bruins

2:4

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

PROTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

25%75%

xG: 2.23.7
High danger: 15
Chances: 812
Shots: 2627

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal27

8Scoring chances12

1High-danger chances5

2.19Expected goals3.71

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–6	2–2	0–0	0.5–0.6
2nd	11–12	4–7	0–3	0.8–1.9
3rd	10–9	2–3	1–2	0.8–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.71
GSAx: -0.29

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.19
GSAx: +0.19

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:34Penalty
1st 3:55Penalty
1st 10:54Fabian Lysell (1–0)low · 28 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
1st 18:30Roni Hirvonen (1–1)low · 41 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 0:30Alex Steeves (1–2)grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 7:38Penalty
2nd 8:42Frederic Brunet (2–2)5v4 · medium · 17 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 14:03Robert Mastrosimone (2–3)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 14:17Penalty
3rd 3:45Penalty
3rd 12:00Penalty
3rd 15:10Penalty
3rd 19:29Joseph Blandisi (2–4)empty net · high · 7 ft · beat Michael DiPietro