AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, March 12

Charlotte Checkers at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Charlotte Checkers
4:3
Final
Rochester Americans

The sheet

CLTROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
27%73%
xG
1.72.2
High danger
26
Chances
78
Shots
2324

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ROC above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal24
7Scoring chances8
2High-danger chances6
1.75Expected goals2.16

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–113–50–40.6–1.1
2nd12–82–21–20.9–0.7
3rd4–52–11–00.3–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ROC−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ROC116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kaapo Kähkönen
Shots faced
24
Saves
21
Allowed
3
xGA
2.16
GSAx
-0.84
Devon Levi
Shots faced
23
Saves
19
Allowed
4
xGA
1.75
GSAx
-2.25

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:07Erik Brännström (0–1)low · 41 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 1st 10:16C.J. Smith (1–1)medium · 31 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 1st 10:51Penalty
  • 1st 19:27Penalty
  • 2nd 2:41Penalty
  • 2nd 4:21John Leonard (2–1)5v4 · low · 58 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 2nd 6:27Penalty
  • 2nd 10:12Penalty
  • 2nd 10:12Penalty
  • 2nd 10:12Penalty
  • 2nd 10:12Penalty
  • 2nd 10:12Penalty
  • 2nd 12:44Penalty
  • 2nd 14:13Kale Clague (2–2)5v4 · low · 60 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 3rd 1:17Penalty
  • 3rd 6:29Penalty
  • 3rd 7:57Ben Steeves (3–2)5v4 · medium · 36 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 3rd 17:49John Leonard (4–2)empty net · high · 12 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 3rd 18:47Erik Brännström (4–3)low · 48 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen