Ontario Reign at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Ontario Reign

4:2

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

ONTTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

58%42%

xG: 2.72.1
High danger: 22
Chances: 119
Shots: 2923

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal23

11Scoring chances9

2High-danger chances2

2.72Expected goals2.08

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–10	0–4	0–1	0.3–1.0
2nd	11–6	5–2	1–1	1.1–0.5
3rd	13–7	6–3	1–0	1.3–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	1	17:23 of the 3rd	2:37	2:37	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.72
GSAx: -1.28

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.08
GSAx: +0.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:48Curtis Douglas (0–1)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 19:43Penalty
1st 19:43Penalty
2nd 1:35Aatu Jämsen (1–1)medium · 27 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 4:50Penalty
2nd 7:17Penalty
2nd 8:14Max Szuber (1–2)5v4 · low · 52 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 19:48Penalty
3rd 4:00Penalty
3rd 10:09Glenn Gawdin (2–2)low · 32 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 17:23Francesco Pinelli (3–2)medium · 10 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 19:15Samuel Fagemo (4–2)empty net · low · 82 ft · beat Matthew Villalta