Colorado Eagles at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Colorado Eagles

4:1

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

COLCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

89%11%

xG: 3.71.4
High danger: 132
Chances: 156
Shots: 2816

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal16

15Scoring chances6

13High-danger chances2

3.69Expected goals1.45

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–5	4–1	4–0	1.2–0.3
2nd	13–3	8–2	7–1	1.8–0.3
3rd	7–8	3–3	2–1	0.8–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	2	14:11 of the 3rd	5:49	5:49	+0.026 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.69
GSAx: -0.31

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 15
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.45
GSAx: +0.45

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 16:55Chase Bradley (1–0)high · 7 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 6:12Penalty
2nd 12:28Penalty
2nd 14:00Penalty
2nd 14:00Chris Wagner (2–0)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 17:37Penalty
3rd 3:38Penalty
3rd 3:38Penalty
3rd 6:03Penalty
3rd 7:48Penalty
3rd 9:50Ben Meyers (2–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 14:11Jason Polin (3–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 17:35Matthew Phillips (4–1)empty net · high · 10 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 19:16Penalty