AHLDashboard
‹ Thursday, March 13

Manitoba Moose at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Manitoba Moose
3:4
Final
Chicago Wolves

The sheet

MBCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
23%77%
xG
1.83.2
High danger
35
Chances
513
Shots
1831

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CHI above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

18Shots on goal31
5Scoring chances13
3High-danger chances5
1.79Expected goals3.17

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–165–73–41.3–1.9
2nd4–80–40–10.2–0.8
3rd5–70–20–00.3–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Domenic DiVincentiis
Shots faced
31
Saves
27
Allowed
4
xGA
3.17
GSAx
-0.83
Spencer Martin
Shots faced
11
Saves
9
Allowed
2
xGA
1.33
GSAx
-0.67
Dustin Tokarski
Shots faced
7
Saves
6
Allowed
1
xGA
0.47
GSAx
-0.53

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:34Ashton Sautner (1–0)high · rebound · 11 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 1st 4:27Fabian Wagner (2–0)medium · 12 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 1st 8:36Ryan Suzuki (2–1)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 1st 13:12Penalty
  • 1st 17:29Penalty
  • 1st 17:42Penalty
  • 1st 18:19Ronan Seeley (2–2)grade A · rebound · 21 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 1st 19:32Penalty
  • 2nd 4:44Penalty
  • 2nd 5:19Domenick Fensore (2–3)4v5 · low · 43 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 2nd 7:18Penalty
  • 2nd 7:18Penalty
  • 2nd 10:31Penalty
  • 2nd 13:44Austin Wagner (2–4)medium · 32 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 2:14Fabian Wagner (3–4)low · 37 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 3rd 6:50Penalty
  • 3rd 11:16Penalty