Springfield Thunderbirds at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Springfield Thunderbirds

4:9

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

SPRSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

33%67%

xG: 2.22.8
High danger: 23
Chances: 713
Shots: 2226

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal26

7Scoring chances13

2High-danger chances3

2.16Expected goals2.79

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–10	3–4	2–1	1.4–0.9
2nd	4–10	2–7	0–0	0.4–1.3
3rd	6–6	2–2	0–2	0.4–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 18
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.16
GSAx: -1.84

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 11
Allowed: 5
xGA: 1.87
GSAx: -3.13

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 10
Saves: 6
Allowed: 4
xGA: 0.91
GSAx: -3.09

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:14Logan Brown (0–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Colten Ellis
1st 2:37Conor Sheary (0–2)high · 10 ft · beat Colten Ellis
1st 5:44Logan Brown (0–3)medium · 17 ft · beat Colten Ellis
1st 8:18Matt Luff (1–3)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
1st 10:07Penalty
1st 13:35Scott Walford (1–4)low · 67 ft · beat Colten Ellis
1st 15:35Matt Luff (2–4)low · 32 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
1st 18:11Hunter Skinner (3–4)low · 51 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
2nd 1:29Penalty
2nd 2:37Jack Finley (3–5)5v4 · medium · 52 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 2:56Daniel Walcott (3–6)medium · 16 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 9:05Gabriel Szturc (3–7)medium · 24 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 10:45Matthew Peca (4–7)medium · 10 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
2nd 13:07Penalty
3rd 7:27Conor Sheary (4–8)high · 6 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 11:48Logan Brown (4–9)high · 8 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 11:53Penalty