AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 14

Providence Bruins at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Providence Bruins
3:4
Final / SO
Rochester Americans

The sheet

PROROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
52%48%
xG
4.14.6
High danger
127
Chances
1717
Shots
2943

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ROC above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal43
17Scoring chances17
12High-danger chances7
4.09Expected goals4.58

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–107–55–31.8–1.2
2nd7–214–63–10.8–1.7
3rd10–85–34–21.2–1.0
OT3–41–30–10.3–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ROC0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ROC116:56 of the 3rd3:040:47+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Bussi
Shots faced
43
Saves
40
Allowed
3
xGA
4.58
GSAx
+1.58
Devon Levi
Shots faced
29
Saves
26
Allowed
3
xGA
4.09
GSAx
+1.09

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:45Jeffrey Viel (1–0)medium · 9 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 1st 5:25Penalty
  • 1st 10:52Jeffrey Viel (2–0)grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 1st 14:54Penalty
  • 1st 14:54Penalty
  • 1st 14:54Penalty
  • 1st 16:09Penalty
  • 2nd 4:52Penalty
  • 2nd 5:38Erik Brännström (2–1)5v4 · low · 54 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 2nd 9:57Penalty
  • 2nd 10:11Penalty
  • 2nd 14:52Penalty
  • 3rd 1:10Mason Jobst (2–2)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 3rd 12:05Penalty
  • 3rd 12:44Penalty
  • 3rd 13:52Oliver Wahlstrom (3–2)5v4 · high · 37 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 3rd 17:43Isak Rosén (3–3)low · 26 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • OT 0:27Penalty