Cleveland Monsters at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Cleveland Monsters

1:4

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

CLETEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

44%56%

xG: 3.22.4
High danger: 13
Chances: 107
Shots: 3926

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal26

10Scoring chances7

1High-danger chances3

3.19Expected goals2.43

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–10	6–3	1–1	1.5–0.8
2nd	9–10	3–3	0–2	0.7–1.2
3rd	15–6	1–1	0–0	1.0–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLE	3	4:28 of the 3rd	15:32	15:32	+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 38
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.19
GSAx: +2.19

Zach Sawchenko

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 22
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.43
GSAx: -1.57

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:47Penalty
1st 13:17Penalty
2nd 9:53Penalty
2nd 11:56Jack Becker (0–1)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
2nd 13:00Justin Hryckowian (0–2)low · 39 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
2nd 14:26James Malatesta (1–2)low · 30 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 17:29Matěj Blümel (1–3)high · 11 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
3rd 4:28Emilio Pettersen (1–4)low · 37 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
3rd 15:39Penalty