AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 14

Colorado Eagles at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Colorado Eagles
3:1
Final
San Diego Gulls

The sheet

COLSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
76%24%
xG
1.71.2
High danger
21
Chances
64
Shots
2416

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SD above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal16
6Scoring chances4
2High-danger chances1
1.67Expected goals1.19

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–33–01–00.8–0.1
2nd4–62–41–10.4–0.8
3rd8–71–00–00.4–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SD−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SD212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Oscar Dansk
Shots faced
24
Saves
21
Allowed
3
xGA
1.67
GSAx
-1.33
Trent Miner
Shots faced
16
Saves
15
Allowed
1
xGA
1.19
GSAx
+0.19

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 8:08Ryan Carpenter (0–1)low · 36 ft · beat Trent Miner
  • 1st 11:53Jayson Megna (1–1)high · 12 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
  • 1st 12:04Penalty
  • 2nd 0:11Penalty
  • 2nd 12:11Penalty
  • 2nd 17:05Penalty
  • 2nd 19:49Penalty
  • 2nd 19:49Penalty
  • 3rd 3:08Jayson Megna (2–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
  • 3rd 3:39Chris Wagner (3–1)low · 28 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
  • 3rd 9:41Penalty
  • 3rd 9:41Penalty
  • 3rd 9:41Penalty
  • 3rd 13:08Penalty