AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 15

Charlotte Checkers at Toronto Marlies

Scotiabank Arena · Toronto, ON

Charlotte Checkers
1:3
Final
Toronto Marlies

The sheet

CLTTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
15%85%
xG
1.42.4
High danger
02
Chances
69
Shots
2223

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TOR above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal23
6Scoring chances9
0High-danger chances2
1.41Expected goals2.36

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–61–30–00.4–0.7
2nd6–143–60–20.5–1.4
3rd8–32–00–00.5–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CLT−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CLT215:15 of the 3rd4:454:45+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kaapo Kähkönen
Shots faced
23
Saves
20
Allowed
3
xGA
2.36
GSAx
-0.64
Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
22
Saves
21
Allowed
1
xGA
1.41
GSAx
+0.41

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:23Penalty
  • 1st 1:23Jesse Puljujärvi (1–0)5v4 · medium · 33 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 1st 2:25Penalty
  • 1st 4:09Penalty
  • 1st 11:30Penalty
  • 1st 15:01Alex Steeves (1–1)low · 40 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 2nd 6:12Jacob Quillan (1–2)grade A · 25 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 2nd 10:20Penalty
  • 2nd 13:19Penalty
  • 2nd 18:31Penalty
  • 2nd 18:39Penalty
  • 3rd 5:36Penalty
  • 3rd 5:36Penalty
  • 3rd 5:36Penalty
  • 3rd 15:15Robert Mastrosimone (1–3)low · 21 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen