AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 15

Hartford Wolf Pack at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Hartford Wolf Pack
4:2
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

HFDMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
51%49%
xG
1.92.2
High danger
43
Chances
78
Shots
2027

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal27
7Scoring chances8
4High-danger chances3
1.87Expected goals2.21

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–82–21–10.7–0.5
2nd4–102–32–10.6–1.0
3rd7–93–31–10.5–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL310:28 of the 3rd9:329:32+0.014 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand
Shots faced
27
Saves
25
Allowed
2
xGA
2.21
GSAx
+0.21
Magnus Chrona
Shots faced
20
Saves
16
Allowed
4
xGA
1.87
GSAx
-2.13

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:37Penalty
  • 1st 17:48Penalty
  • 1st 17:48Penalty
  • 1st 19:03Jesse Ylonen (0–1)high · 17 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 2nd 0:17Dylan Roobroeck (1–1)high · 12 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 2nd 5:37Penalty
  • 2nd 11:31Penalty
  • 2nd 12:55Dylan Roobroeck (2–1)5v4 · high · 24 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 2nd 17:00Connor Mackey (3–1)low · 33 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 2nd 18:39Penalty
  • 3rd 4:32Penalty
  • 3rd 10:28Lucas Edmonds (4–1)medium · 19 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 3rd 17:36Kyle Marino (4–2)medium · 24 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 3rd 18:18Penalty
  • 3rd 18:18Penalty
  • 3rd 18:18Penalty
  • 3rd 18:18Penalty