Bridgeport Islanders at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Bridgeport Islanders

1:6

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

BRIBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

19%81%

xG: 2.43.6
High danger: 17
Chances: 1215
Shots: 3136

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal36

12Scoring chances15

1High-danger chances7

2.41Expected goals3.63

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–11	5–6	1–3	0.9–1.4
2nd	11–15	6–4	0–2	1.0–1.2
3rd	10–10	1–5	0–2	0.5–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Henrik Tikkanen

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 30
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.64
GSAx: -2.36

Malcolm Subban

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.41
GSAx: +1.41

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:17Penalty
1st 6:12Penalty
1st 9:47Penalty
1st 14:39Penalty
1st 17:08Maxence Guenette (0–1)low · 32 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
1st 18:56Jan Jeník (0–2)high · 11 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
2nd 4:17Penalty
2nd 4:25Angus Crookshank (0–3)5v4 · high · 21 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
2nd 8:46Penalty
2nd 10:51Jeremy Davies (0–4)medium · 18 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
2nd 13:25Penalty
2nd 15:49Penalty
3rd 8:08Wyatte Wylie (0–5)low · 34 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
3rd 12:12Penalty
3rd 15:27Tyce Thompson (1–5)low · 43 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
3rd 15:44Xavier Bourgault (1–6)medium · 17 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen