Hershey Bears at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Hershey Bears

5:0

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

HERCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

56%44%

xG: 2.72.2
High danger: 45
Chances: 117
Shots: 2621

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal21

11Scoring chances7

4High-danger chances5

2.71Expected goals2.24

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–9	4–3	1–2	0.8–1.0
2nd	10–2	5–0	3–0	1.2–0.1
3rd	8–10	2–4	0–3	0.7–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 21
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.24
GSAx: +2.24

Dustin Tokarski

Shots faced: 14
Saves: 10
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.72
GSAx: -2.28

Ruslan Khazheyev

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 11
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.99
GSAx: -0.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 14:24Penalty
1st 16:38Henrik Rybinski (1–0)high · 13 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
2nd 4:40Pierrick Dubé (2–0)high · 12 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
2nd 5:10Jon McDonald (3–0)low · 29 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
2nd 10:03Bogdan Trineyev (4–0)low · 27 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
2nd 12:04Penalty
3rd 9:12Penalty
3rd 12:14Penalty
3rd 18:47Henrik Rybinski (5–0)medium · 10 ft · beat Ruslan Khazheyev