AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 15

Grand Rapids Griffins at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Grand Rapids Griffins
3:1
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

GRRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
66%34%
xG
2.31.5
High danger
22
Chances
78
Shots
2215

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal15
7Scoring chances8
2High-danger chances2
2.28Expected goals1.45

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–61–40–10.4–0.7
2nd10–52–11–01.1–0.3
3rd6–44–31–10.8–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mitchell Weeks
Shots faced
22
Saves
19
Allowed
3
xGA
2.28
GSAx
-0.72
Jan Bednar
Shots faced
15
Saves
14
Allowed
1
xGA
1.45
GSAx
+0.45

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 13:03Joey Anderson (0–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Jan Bednar
  • 1st 14:53Penalty
  • 1st 18:37Penalty
  • 1st 19:28Penalty
  • 2nd 0:34Shai Buium (1–1)5v4 · high · 24 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 2nd 4:34Penalty
  • 2nd 14:56Penalty
  • 2nd 16:07Penalty
  • 2nd 17:15Penalty
  • 2nd 19:10Nate Danielson (2–1)5v4 · low · 37 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 3rd 0:57Penalty
  • 3rd 8:23Penalty
  • 3rd 8:23Penalty
  • 3rd 8:47Austin Watson (3–1)5v4 · medium · 36 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 3rd 15:39Penalty
  • 3rd 15:39Penalty